A.J. Brown's Numbers Don't Add Up: Is He Still an Elite Receiver?
The Philadelphia Eagles' star receiver, A.J. Brown, has been under scrutiny all season long for a multitude of reasons - most notably, his lackluster performance on the field that doesn't quite match up with the drama surrounding him off it. As he navigates what could be his lowest production in years, one thing is certain: something needs to change.
Brown's numbers have taken a nosedive this season. With 31 catches for just 408 yards and three touchdowns through nine games, he finds himself on pace for career lows - a far cry from the elite receiver that Eagles fans know and love. The main culprit behind his down stats? Targets, which are scarce at just six per game. Compare that to teammate DeVonta Smith's 8.8 targets per game, and it becomes clear that Brown's production is being stifled.
Now, fans, media, and even Brown himself point fingers at everything from the offense's scheme to play calling - including quarterback Jalen Hurts simply not throwing his way. However, there's a more ominous hypothesis that needs exploring: decline. As we take a closer look at Brown's statistics when he does get his hands on the ball, it becomes increasingly apparent that something is amiss.
According to NFL NextGen Stats, Brown is struggling across multiple categories this season:
1. **Yards per Reception**: Down from 17 yards in 2022 to just 13.2 yards so far in 2025.
2. **Yards per Target**: A significant drop from 10.3 yards in 2022 to a mere 7.6 yards this year.
3. **Completion Percentage on Targets**: Slumping from 60.7% in 2022 to 57.4% this season.
4. **Yards After Catch Per Reception**: Down from an average of 6.6 yards in 2022 to just 3.3 yards so far this year.
5. **Average Separation (in yards)**: Falling from 2.6 yards in 2022 to a mere 1.8 yards this season.
A closer examination reveals that Brown's primary issue is his inability to separate himself from defenders, particularly against man coverage. His catch rate increases significantly when facing zone defenses but struggles in man-to-man situations, where he often fails to create enough space for separation. It seems like a case of Brown compensating with physical contact rather than finesse.
Brown himself acknowledges this - pointing out that he has successfully beaten man coverage and notes the team switching to cloud coverages after his initial success. However, despite this increase in production against man coverage, it's clear that his lack of separation is still an issue. Furthermore, Brown's propensity for pushing off defenders at times raises eyebrows, as it was once a subtle aspect of his game.
The decline hypothesis might seem premature, given Brown's missed time with training camp due to injury. Yet, the data paints a concerning picture - one that demands some serious reevaluation from both Brown and the coaching staff. Can Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo adapt their offense to get Brown more separation? Will Jalen Hurts improve his accuracy when targeting him?
For now, it's clear that if A.J. Brown doesn't see an uptick in production soon, we might be witnessing a different receiver on the field - one whose best days are behind him.
The Philadelphia Eagles' star receiver, A.J. Brown, has been under scrutiny all season long for a multitude of reasons - most notably, his lackluster performance on the field that doesn't quite match up with the drama surrounding him off it. As he navigates what could be his lowest production in years, one thing is certain: something needs to change.
Brown's numbers have taken a nosedive this season. With 31 catches for just 408 yards and three touchdowns through nine games, he finds himself on pace for career lows - a far cry from the elite receiver that Eagles fans know and love. The main culprit behind his down stats? Targets, which are scarce at just six per game. Compare that to teammate DeVonta Smith's 8.8 targets per game, and it becomes clear that Brown's production is being stifled.
Now, fans, media, and even Brown himself point fingers at everything from the offense's scheme to play calling - including quarterback Jalen Hurts simply not throwing his way. However, there's a more ominous hypothesis that needs exploring: decline. As we take a closer look at Brown's statistics when he does get his hands on the ball, it becomes increasingly apparent that something is amiss.
According to NFL NextGen Stats, Brown is struggling across multiple categories this season:
1. **Yards per Reception**: Down from 17 yards in 2022 to just 13.2 yards so far in 2025.
2. **Yards per Target**: A significant drop from 10.3 yards in 2022 to a mere 7.6 yards this year.
3. **Completion Percentage on Targets**: Slumping from 60.7% in 2022 to 57.4% this season.
4. **Yards After Catch Per Reception**: Down from an average of 6.6 yards in 2022 to just 3.3 yards so far this year.
5. **Average Separation (in yards)**: Falling from 2.6 yards in 2022 to a mere 1.8 yards this season.
A closer examination reveals that Brown's primary issue is his inability to separate himself from defenders, particularly against man coverage. His catch rate increases significantly when facing zone defenses but struggles in man-to-man situations, where he often fails to create enough space for separation. It seems like a case of Brown compensating with physical contact rather than finesse.
Brown himself acknowledges this - pointing out that he has successfully beaten man coverage and notes the team switching to cloud coverages after his initial success. However, despite this increase in production against man coverage, it's clear that his lack of separation is still an issue. Furthermore, Brown's propensity for pushing off defenders at times raises eyebrows, as it was once a subtle aspect of his game.
The decline hypothesis might seem premature, given Brown's missed time with training camp due to injury. Yet, the data paints a concerning picture - one that demands some serious reevaluation from both Brown and the coaching staff. Can Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo adapt their offense to get Brown more separation? Will Jalen Hurts improve his accuracy when targeting him?
For now, it's clear that if A.J. Brown doesn't see an uptick in production soon, we might be witnessing a different receiver on the field - one whose best days are behind him.
31 catches for 408 yards and only 3 touchdowns is straight up disappointing considering hes supposed to be one of the top receivers in the league. targets are scarce at just 6 per game, thats a huge drop from last season when he got around 10+ targets per game.
, so we need some creative solutions from the coaching staff. maybe they can switch up the formation or use more screen passes to get him the ball in space.
. hes gotta find a way to create more space between him and the defender without relying on physical contact. idk man, i think browns best days are behind him unless we see some major adjustments from the coaching staff 
A.J. Browns numbers have been slipping and it's not just about targets or play calling. His YPR is down, yards per target is lower, completion percentage is off... that's some serious skills regression going on here.
. He's not separating himself from defenders like he used to, and it's affecting his production big time. 
.
. The data suggests that he's genuinely struggling to create space against man coverage, which was once a strength of his game. If he can't get more consistent separation, it's going to be tough for him to regain his elite status.
. Injuries have been a major factor this season, and while that's certainly affected his numbers, it's clear that there's more going on here than just a matter of missing time.
i feel bad for the guy but seriously, nick sirianni needs to figure out how to get brown more separation and let him make plays instead of just throwing him open receivers are supposed to be one step ahead of defenders not getting destroyed like he's doin right now 
. This whole "target" thing might be overblown – it's not just about numbers, it's about getting the ball in the right hands at the right time.
He's down big time from last year and his targets are super low 
If Jalen Hurts is not throwin to him, that's a problem 
Coach Sirianni needs to mix it up and get Brown more separation 
Man coverage is killin him 
. Maybe it's time for them to rethink their approach, or we might be seeing a shadow of the player he used to be 
.
DeVonta Smith is getting 8.8 targets per game and he's killing it 
I don't think it's the offense's scheme or play calling that's the problem... Brown's gotta figure out how to separate himself from defenders, especially in man coverage 
he used to be like the GOAT of receivers but now his numbers are straight up tanking and it's hard to watch him struggle 
the stats say one thing, but sometimes you just gotta trust the guy on the field and I think that's what they're missing - that intangibles 
that's like night and day, fam