New York City's wealthy are warning that a tax increase on the richest residents could lead to a brain drain, but data suggests otherwise. Billionaire Bill Ackman and Governor Kathy Hochul have expressed concerns that high-earners will leave the state if their taxes rise.
However, a closer look at millionaire migration patterns reveals that top earners are relatively reluctant to uproot from their homes, where they've built careers and families. Research has shown that millionaires tend to move less often than lower-income workers, with only 2.4% of them relocating each year - and most of those moves do not result in a lower tax bill.
One study found that millionaire migration patterns are more closely tied to social and economic factors than tax rates. Millionaires are often married, have children, and own businesses, making it difficult for them to uproot and start over in a new location. The loss of their social networks and connections can outweigh any potential tax savings.
The COVID-19 pandemic did see a temporary surge in millionaire migration out of high-tax states like New York, as remote work became the norm. However, once social life returned to normal, millionaire migration patterns mostly reverted to pre-pandemic baselines.
The key takeaway for policymakers is that attracting and retaining top earners requires a different strategy than simply offering tax cuts. Places that draw young professionals build the pipeline of future top earners, who are more likely to be attracted by affordable child care, good public schools, and a high quality of life.
In this light, New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani's plan to raise taxes on the richest residents can be seen as practical. By supporting services and quality of life for low- and middle-income households, the city may be able to retain top earners who are willing to pay a higher tax rate when they reach their peak earning phase.
Ultimately, the data suggests that high-earners are not as mobile as policymakers often assume, and that the social and economic costs of uprooting can outweigh any potential tax savings.
However, a closer look at millionaire migration patterns reveals that top earners are relatively reluctant to uproot from their homes, where they've built careers and families. Research has shown that millionaires tend to move less often than lower-income workers, with only 2.4% of them relocating each year - and most of those moves do not result in a lower tax bill.
One study found that millionaire migration patterns are more closely tied to social and economic factors than tax rates. Millionaires are often married, have children, and own businesses, making it difficult for them to uproot and start over in a new location. The loss of their social networks and connections can outweigh any potential tax savings.
The COVID-19 pandemic did see a temporary surge in millionaire migration out of high-tax states like New York, as remote work became the norm. However, once social life returned to normal, millionaire migration patterns mostly reverted to pre-pandemic baselines.
The key takeaway for policymakers is that attracting and retaining top earners requires a different strategy than simply offering tax cuts. Places that draw young professionals build the pipeline of future top earners, who are more likely to be attracted by affordable child care, good public schools, and a high quality of life.
In this light, New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani's plan to raise taxes on the richest residents can be seen as practical. By supporting services and quality of life for low- and middle-income households, the city may be able to retain top earners who are willing to pay a higher tax rate when they reach their peak earning phase.
Ultimately, the data suggests that high-earners are not as mobile as policymakers often assume, and that the social and economic costs of uprooting can outweigh any potential tax savings.
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. It's more about finding a place where they can live their best lives, and New York is still gonna be that city, no matter what taxes are like 
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. and honestly, i feel like the gov should focus on making life better for low- income families instead of just trying to keep rich folks happy. affordable childcare, quality schools, etc... that's what really matters 
I agree with the idea that taxing the rich won't lead to a brain drain, it's actually a good point that they're relatively stuck in their homes... 
They got families and businesses, making it hard for them to just pick up and leave. 
And yeah, the pandemic did see a lot of rich folks leaving high-tax states, but once things went back to normal, they came back... 
. I mean, have they ever tried to move with a family or start a business from scratch? 
It's not that easy, fam! The idea that high-earners are just gonna up and leave because of a tax hike is pretty naive. They're more worried about losing their social status and connections than actually making a difference in the community 
. Plus, if we're being real, most people who make that kind of money have already got their whole lives sorted out 
. So, maybe instead of offering them tax cuts, NYC should focus on supporting the actual people who need it most 
. Millionaires aren't as likely to jump ship over taxes as everyone thinks 
. Plus, research shows they're more tied to social and economic factors than tax rates 
. It's all about building a solid life, not just chasing after cash 
. Not exactly the kind of brain drain policymakers are worried about 
. Affordable childcare, good schools, and quality of life = more top earners willing to pay up 
. Instead of just cutting taxes, we should be building pipelines of future talent by supporting our communities 
. NYC could actually benefit from a tax increase on the rich if it means better services for everyone 
. They're not gonna leave their mansions and fancy cars behind for a few extra bucks in taxes 
. And honestly, who can blame 'em? I'd want to stay in one place too, especially with all the family commitments and business investments they've made. It's all about stability and security, you know? 
. And now I see this article that says top earners are actually pretty rooted in their homes too 
. It's not just about the money, but also about the connections and stuff they've built up over time 
I think this whole thing is kinda like when you're trying to get outta a toxic relationship... once you break free, you don't wanna go back! Millionaires are all about building a life, family, and businesses, and uprooting just doesn't seem like an option for them. It's not gonna be some super dramatic change because they got a slightly higher tax rate 
They're always saying we gotta keep our super rich people happy or they'll leave... but what if they don't wanna leave? Like, have you seen a millionaire try to uproot their whole life and move somewhere new? It's like asking someone to give up their family and friends all over again. Maybe instead of trying to lure them with tax cuts, we should just focus on making our city a better place for everyone. That way, they can live happily ever after without feeling the need to leave.