Forecasting extreme winter storms has become increasingly complex due to rapid planetary changes and the lack of investment in scientific research by the US government.
These icy spells often arrive suddenly, catching forecasters off guard and leaving little time for preparation compared to slower-moving extremes like heat waves. According to Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, short bursts of cold are more difficult to predict than longer duration signals.
Cold snaps can be particularly jarring when they're interspersed with milder weather. While the planet is heating up overall, there are still periods of intense cold, especially in certain areas and times. Research suggests that warming in the Arctic may be contributing to these cold weather spillovers.
However, the extent to which human activity is altering cold snaps isn't known, with some scientists arguing that global warming has led to fewer extremely cold temperatures. A complication on top of this is that the US is cutting back on scientific research, especially around climate change, which could leave more Americans less prepared for dangerous weather.
Despite these challenges, new forecasting methods are helping meteorologists close the gap in predicting future winter storms. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts held a contest to see who could build the best new AI-powered model for subseasonal forecasts, and Cohen's team won for the 2025-'26 winter season. Their model trained on decades of observations across the Northern Hemisphere found far-flung variables at work, such as weather in Eurasia in October and ocean temperatures in parts of the Arctic like the Kara Sea.
These advancements hold promise for better predictions and helping communities issue alerts, shore up power, and stockpile supplies. However, the lack of investment in scientific research by the US government obscures the view when it's needed most.
These icy spells often arrive suddenly, catching forecasters off guard and leaving little time for preparation compared to slower-moving extremes like heat waves. According to Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, short bursts of cold are more difficult to predict than longer duration signals.
Cold snaps can be particularly jarring when they're interspersed with milder weather. While the planet is heating up overall, there are still periods of intense cold, especially in certain areas and times. Research suggests that warming in the Arctic may be contributing to these cold weather spillovers.
However, the extent to which human activity is altering cold snaps isn't known, with some scientists arguing that global warming has led to fewer extremely cold temperatures. A complication on top of this is that the US is cutting back on scientific research, especially around climate change, which could leave more Americans less prepared for dangerous weather.
Despite these challenges, new forecasting methods are helping meteorologists close the gap in predicting future winter storms. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts held a contest to see who could build the best new AI-powered model for subseasonal forecasts, and Cohen's team won for the 2025-'26 winter season. Their model trained on decades of observations across the Northern Hemisphere found far-flung variables at work, such as weather in Eurasia in October and ocean temperatures in parts of the Arctic like the Kara Sea.
These advancements hold promise for better predictions and helping communities issue alerts, shore up power, and stockpile supplies. However, the lack of investment in scientific research by the US government obscures the view when it's needed most.
. I mean, we used to get a couple of good snow days and be all excited about it, but now it's like, "Oh no, what's coming next?!" The forecasters are always running around like headless chickens trying to figure out how to prepare for these sudden cold snaps 
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. I mean, what's the point of having a weather center if they're just gonna cut back on funding? It's like, come on, guys! You gotta help us prepare for these crazy storms or we'll be stuck in the dark ages 
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. New AI-powered models are being developed, and they're actually getting some pretty good results. Maybe with a little more investment in science we can figure out how to predict these storms before they hit us 
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it makes me wanna scream!!! ok maybe not but it's seriously worrisome! these forecasters are already dealin w/ super complex weather patterns and now they gotta figure out if human activity is causin more cold snaps or less... like, wut even?!
and it's literally mind blown! these meteorologists are workin so hard 2 improve their predictions & help ppl prepare 4 dangerous weather events. plus, who knows, maybe w/ better forecasting methods we'll actually b able 2 do something bout climate change... 
. And if the US government is cutting back on scientific research, it's like we're playing catch-up with a broken clock 
. I mean, don't get me wrong, advancements in forecasting are awesome and all that, but what about investing in actual climate change mitigation? We can't just prep for winter storms without addressing the root cause of them 
. It's like trying to put a Band-Aid on a bullet wound... not gonna cut it 
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But seriously, I think forecasting extreme weather events has become super hard for meteorologists. I mean, we need to be able to prepare for these intense cold snaps, but it's getting harder because of climate change. Like, the Arctic is warming up and bringing cold air down with it, making everything more unpredictable 
. It’s crazy how far ahead the Europeans are with this new AI model thingy... maybe we should try that too?
I think its really scary how fast things are changing with the weather, especially with these extreme winter storms becoming harder to predict 
. Its like we're playing a game of whack-a-mole - as soon as one storm goes away, another one pops up somewhere else 
. But at least we're seeing some innovation with AI-powered models, which is a step in the right direction 
. Still, we gotta be prepared for anything and make sure our communities are ready for whatever Mother Nature throws our way 
. Like, I know climate change is a big deal, but I don't wanna be caught off guard when there's a snowstorm comin' outta nowhere 
. It's like, the US government's all about the benjamins and ain't investin' in no research, you feel? 
. That's just gonna leave us Americans more vulnerable to bad weather and I don't think that's cool at all 
. I'm all about bein' prepared and havin' some extra time to stock up on supplies, you know? 
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!