US President Donald Trump's provocative move to impose 10% tariffs on goods from eight European countries unless they agree to allow him to annex Greenland has sent shockwaves across the Atlantic. The threat is part of a complex game of chicken being played out between Trump and European leaders, with the potential for a full-blown trade war hanging precariously in the balance.
At the heart of this crisis is Trump's unprecedented demand for the "complete and total purchase" of Greenland from Denmark, which has sparked outrage among EU leaders. In response, they have threatened to deploy the bloc's anti-coercion instrument, known as the "trade bazooka", which was designed to counteract attempts by other countries to bully or coerce Europe into submission.
The trade bazooka is a powerful tool that allows the EU to impose sweeping trade sanctions on targeted countries, including excluding their companies from the single market, imposing export controls, and ending intellectual property protections. The countermeasures are meant to be proportionate to the economic harm inflicted, while minimizing pain to European consumers.
EU leaders have been urging restraint, with France's President Emmanuel Macron calling for calm and Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz striking a more conciliatory tone than his deputy. However, countries such as Italy and Ireland have shown reluctance to consider using the trade bazooka, citing their emphasis on free trade and close relationships with Trump.
The EU is waiting to see how this crisis unfolds, but experts warn that the risks of a full-blown trade war are high. Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% tariff would lower real GDP in affected European countries by between 0.1% and 0.2%, with Germany bearing the brunt of the impact.
A trade war would not only devastate European economies but also have significant consequences for the US, which would face higher border taxes on its imports from Europe. The International Monetary Fund chief economist has warned that a tit-for-tat trade war could drag down global output by about 0.3%.
While there are hopes that the supreme court may rule against Trump's tariffs, many experts believe that the US president may be trying to provoke a response from Europe in order to justify his actions domestically. The fact that Trump has backed himself into a corner, as one economist put it, raises concerns that he may not be able to extricate himself without further escalation.
The fallout from this crisis could be contained if both sides are willing to listen to each other and negotiate a compromise. Last year's trade battles between the US and Europe showed that while tensions can run high, the economies of both regions have proven resilient enough to withstand some shocks. However, economists caution that the next few months will be critical in determining how this crisis unfolds.
At the heart of this crisis is Trump's unprecedented demand for the "complete and total purchase" of Greenland from Denmark, which has sparked outrage among EU leaders. In response, they have threatened to deploy the bloc's anti-coercion instrument, known as the "trade bazooka", which was designed to counteract attempts by other countries to bully or coerce Europe into submission.
The trade bazooka is a powerful tool that allows the EU to impose sweeping trade sanctions on targeted countries, including excluding their companies from the single market, imposing export controls, and ending intellectual property protections. The countermeasures are meant to be proportionate to the economic harm inflicted, while minimizing pain to European consumers.
EU leaders have been urging restraint, with France's President Emmanuel Macron calling for calm and Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz striking a more conciliatory tone than his deputy. However, countries such as Italy and Ireland have shown reluctance to consider using the trade bazooka, citing their emphasis on free trade and close relationships with Trump.
The EU is waiting to see how this crisis unfolds, but experts warn that the risks of a full-blown trade war are high. Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% tariff would lower real GDP in affected European countries by between 0.1% and 0.2%, with Germany bearing the brunt of the impact.
A trade war would not only devastate European economies but also have significant consequences for the US, which would face higher border taxes on its imports from Europe. The International Monetary Fund chief economist has warned that a tit-for-tat trade war could drag down global output by about 0.3%.
While there are hopes that the supreme court may rule against Trump's tariffs, many experts believe that the US president may be trying to provoke a response from Europe in order to justify his actions domestically. The fact that Trump has backed himself into a corner, as one economist put it, raises concerns that he may not be able to extricate himself without further escalation.
The fallout from this crisis could be contained if both sides are willing to listen to each other and negotiate a compromise. Last year's trade battles between the US and Europe showed that while tensions can run high, the economies of both regions have proven resilient enough to withstand some shocks. However, economists caution that the next few months will be critical in determining how this crisis unfolds.