US Influence Wanes, Leaving China's Trade Surplus Unchecked
As Mark Carney, Canada's Prime Minister, laments about "great economic powers" dismantling the international order at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he may as well be talking about both the United States and China. Last week, Beijing revealed that China's trade surplus ballooned by 20% in 2025, reaching a staggering $1.2 trillion. Despite President Trump's tariffs, which crippled Chinese sales to the US, China's overall exports continued to soar, with sales to the Asean bloc increasing over 13%. Conversely, Chinese imports remained flat.
This gigantic trade imbalance is suffocating manufacturers across Europe and Asia, from poorer nations in Latin America to rich countries. Eswar Prassad, a former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund, warns that "Forget Trump's Tariffs. The Real Danger Lies in China's Trade Surplus." This export-led economic surge has triggered a global response, with low- and middle-income countries launching over 300 antidumping investigations against Chinese exports since 2020.
The US' waning influence is not China's responsibility, but Beijing must recognize that its trade strategy is crippling international economic institutions. For China to preserve the global trading order it built on its wealth and power, it needs to reconsider mercantilistic policies that are draining demand from other countries. The "China shock" – the wave of imports following China's accession to the WTO in 2001 – has had far-reaching consequences for US manufacturing, creating fertile ground for Trump's America First agenda.
However, China cannot ignore its role in triggering this global response. Its exports are changing minds about the benefits of open trade beyond the United States. The European Union now agrees with the US that the WTO no longer works, and Mexico has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. India has also raised tariffs on steel imports to stem a surge in imports from China.
China's leadership must understand that its export-led strategy is not only failing to generate prosperity for ordinary Chinese but also delivering diminishing returns. Business investment is hitting rock-bottom levels, requiring more capital to create each additional job. The country's household spending accounts for only 40% of GDP, compared with 60% in developed nations.
In contrast, China has an unparalleled opportunity to become a global leader as the US retreats into itself and opens space for an alternative trading system. However, by sticking to its guns, Beijing will validate the US turn against the global economy and continue to erode faith in the trading system that has enabled its remarkable success.
As Mark Carney, Canada's Prime Minister, laments about "great economic powers" dismantling the international order at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he may as well be talking about both the United States and China. Last week, Beijing revealed that China's trade surplus ballooned by 20% in 2025, reaching a staggering $1.2 trillion. Despite President Trump's tariffs, which crippled Chinese sales to the US, China's overall exports continued to soar, with sales to the Asean bloc increasing over 13%. Conversely, Chinese imports remained flat.
This gigantic trade imbalance is suffocating manufacturers across Europe and Asia, from poorer nations in Latin America to rich countries. Eswar Prassad, a former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund, warns that "Forget Trump's Tariffs. The Real Danger Lies in China's Trade Surplus." This export-led economic surge has triggered a global response, with low- and middle-income countries launching over 300 antidumping investigations against Chinese exports since 2020.
The US' waning influence is not China's responsibility, but Beijing must recognize that its trade strategy is crippling international economic institutions. For China to preserve the global trading order it built on its wealth and power, it needs to reconsider mercantilistic policies that are draining demand from other countries. The "China shock" – the wave of imports following China's accession to the WTO in 2001 – has had far-reaching consequences for US manufacturing, creating fertile ground for Trump's America First agenda.
However, China cannot ignore its role in triggering this global response. Its exports are changing minds about the benefits of open trade beyond the United States. The European Union now agrees with the US that the WTO no longer works, and Mexico has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods. India has also raised tariffs on steel imports to stem a surge in imports from China.
China's leadership must understand that its export-led strategy is not only failing to generate prosperity for ordinary Chinese but also delivering diminishing returns. Business investment is hitting rock-bottom levels, requiring more capital to create each additional job. The country's household spending accounts for only 40% of GDP, compared with 60% in developed nations.
In contrast, China has an unparalleled opportunity to become a global leader as the US retreats into itself and opens space for an alternative trading system. However, by sticking to its guns, Beijing will validate the US turn against the global economy and continue to erode faith in the trading system that has enabled its remarkable success.
$1.2 trillion is a lotta dough! but at the same time, it's like they're suffocatin' manufacturers all over europe and asia... it's def not cool for those economies 
and i feel bad for mark carney and america, trump's tariffs didn't do much to slow china down 
and that's not good for anyone... the wto is already broke, no one can deny it 
maybe china should try somethin new? 
. They've built up their economy from scratch, and that takes some serious skill and determination. And yeah, maybe they need to find ways to balance their trade surplus with creating jobs and opportunities for ordinary Chinese people.
, but they also can't ignore the global response they're getting from other countries. Maybe it's time for them to think about creating a new trading system that benefits everyone - not just themselves 
.
. the us has been playing catch-up with china for years, but now it's china's turn to lead the charge... or should i say, follow the trend? 
.
! They're just sitting there, raking in all that cash from exports, while their own country is struggling 
. I mean, 20% increase in trade surplus? That's insane! And the US, who's supposed to be a major player now, can't even stop them 
. It's like they're just letting China walk all over them... and it makes me so angry 
!
, but they're not doing anything about it 
. They need to change their mercantilistic policies, like, yesterday! 
It's not fair to the rest of us who are stuck with these dwindling economies 
. China needs to step up its game and become a global leader in a positive way, not just a bully 
. Otherwise, it'll be like "China shock 2.0" 
... and nobody wants that 
!
That's a lot of cash, but it's not just about China anymore, is it? 
They need to consider the bigger picture and how their actions are impacting others.
... But now, China has a chance to create a new trade system that benefits everyone. It's not too late to change course, but they need to get on it ASAP! 
The US may be out, but China's not going to be the savior either. It's time to rethink its strategy and start working with the global economy, not against it 
. I mean, Trump may have messed up with his tariffs, but China's response is just... alot 
. What's in it for them if they're not even generating prosperity for their own people? 
?
. Can we work together to create a more inclusive economic system that benefits everyone, not just a select few? 
. The US is still all about protectionism and tariffs, so it's rich coming from them to lecture China on its trade strategy 
.
! They need to start investing in their own manufacturing and industry development, instead of just relying on cheap labor and export-led growth 
.