Reveals: Economic Growth Figures Give Chancellor Reeves a Brief Reprieve, but the Party's Over Soon
The latest economic growth figures have given Chancellor Rachel Reeves a much-needed boost, with Britain's economy expanding by 0.3% in November, beating expectations and defying predictions of a recession. The news comes as no surprise, however, given that much of the increase was outside of her direct control - namely, the impact of the Jaguar Land Rover cyber-attack on manufacturing output.
While Reeves may be breathing a sigh of relief, it's still too early to get carried away about the future prospects for the UK economy. The latest official figures show that real estate activity slumped in November, as property owners and house hunters put things on hold while awaiting the outcome of the chancellor's tax decisions, while consumer-facing businesses struggled due to uncertainty sapping household confidence.
However, the service sector proved stronger than anticipated, despite these headwinds. And with inflation expected to fall significantly thanks to Reeves' budget measures, there are some positive tailwinds for the economy. The Bank of England predicts a drop in the headline rate could be as much as 0.5 percentage points, allowing it to hit its 2% target by the spring.
There are also tentative signs that the jobs market is stabilising, with workers benefiting from real wage growth and households sitting on elevated levels of savings. If consumer confidence improves, this could translate into stronger retail, hospitality, and leisure spending.
But business leaders warn that there are reasons not to get carried away. Cost pressures remain high, including a rising minimum wage, tax increases, elevated borrowing costs, and the cumulative impact of past increases on all fronts - which could finish off "zombie firms" that have been barely keeping the bills paid, leading to a sharp uptick in unemployment.
Geopolitical concerns are also rising, with Donald Trump's increasingly interventionist approach to world affairs potentially chilling the global economy and business investment. Meanwhile, domestic politics is heating up, with Labour facing a tough round of May elections - raising the spectre of fresh political instability.
Ultimately, while Reeves' budget may have provided a temporary reprieve for the UK economy, it's still too early to celebrate. There is considerably more work still to be done to lift the clouds over the economy in 2026 and secure Britain's economic future.
The latest economic growth figures have given Chancellor Rachel Reeves a much-needed boost, with Britain's economy expanding by 0.3% in November, beating expectations and defying predictions of a recession. The news comes as no surprise, however, given that much of the increase was outside of her direct control - namely, the impact of the Jaguar Land Rover cyber-attack on manufacturing output.
While Reeves may be breathing a sigh of relief, it's still too early to get carried away about the future prospects for the UK economy. The latest official figures show that real estate activity slumped in November, as property owners and house hunters put things on hold while awaiting the outcome of the chancellor's tax decisions, while consumer-facing businesses struggled due to uncertainty sapping household confidence.
However, the service sector proved stronger than anticipated, despite these headwinds. And with inflation expected to fall significantly thanks to Reeves' budget measures, there are some positive tailwinds for the economy. The Bank of England predicts a drop in the headline rate could be as much as 0.5 percentage points, allowing it to hit its 2% target by the spring.
There are also tentative signs that the jobs market is stabilising, with workers benefiting from real wage growth and households sitting on elevated levels of savings. If consumer confidence improves, this could translate into stronger retail, hospitality, and leisure spending.
But business leaders warn that there are reasons not to get carried away. Cost pressures remain high, including a rising minimum wage, tax increases, elevated borrowing costs, and the cumulative impact of past increases on all fronts - which could finish off "zombie firms" that have been barely keeping the bills paid, leading to a sharp uptick in unemployment.
Geopolitical concerns are also rising, with Donald Trump's increasingly interventionist approach to world affairs potentially chilling the global economy and business investment. Meanwhile, domestic politics is heating up, with Labour facing a tough round of May elections - raising the spectre of fresh political instability.
Ultimately, while Reeves' budget may have provided a temporary reprieve for the UK economy, it's still too early to celebrate. There is considerably more work still to be done to lift the clouds over the economy in 2026 and secure Britain's economic future.