Kalshi CEO's Ambitious Plan to Monetize Disagreements, Critics Say It's Just a Bet
The "prediction market" platform Kalshi has announced a partnership with CNN to place odds on everything from elections to the weather. Co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour has expressed his vision for monetizing every difference of opinion, but critics argue that this approach is misguided.
Mansour claims that prediction markets can provide clarity by surfacing truth to people, but experts say this idea is oversimplified. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan recently took a similar stance on TV, calling his company's platform the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now – an assertion with no concrete evidence.
The problem lies in how prediction markets are structured. They allow users to purchase contracts for given outcomes at certain probabilities, often referred to as "odds." This creates a market where people bet on both sides of the proposition, which undermines the notion that it's a pure prediction.
Consider the 2021 New York mayoral election when Polymarket accounts reported a surge in betting on Andrew Cuomo winning. Despite the odds suggesting otherwise, users were encouraged to chase the less likely outcome, sparking concerns about the platform's accuracy and predictive value.
Investors seem to be more interested in the revenue generated by these platforms than their supposed ability to provide clarity or predictions. Kalshi has recently raised $1 billion in new financing at an $11 billion valuation, with investors eager to capitalize on the "prediction market" trend – even if it means exploiting users who bet without fully understanding the odds.
Critics argue that Mansour's vision is more about profiting from disagreements than resolving differences of opinion. As the platform continues to expand its offerings and attract new investors, one thing becomes clear: those with money are betting on people being suckers for the "prediction market" craze – and it's likely they'll come out on top.
The "prediction market" platform Kalshi has announced a partnership with CNN to place odds on everything from elections to the weather. Co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour has expressed his vision for monetizing every difference of opinion, but critics argue that this approach is misguided.
Mansour claims that prediction markets can provide clarity by surfacing truth to people, but experts say this idea is oversimplified. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan recently took a similar stance on TV, calling his company's platform the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now – an assertion with no concrete evidence.
The problem lies in how prediction markets are structured. They allow users to purchase contracts for given outcomes at certain probabilities, often referred to as "odds." This creates a market where people bet on both sides of the proposition, which undermines the notion that it's a pure prediction.
Consider the 2021 New York mayoral election when Polymarket accounts reported a surge in betting on Andrew Cuomo winning. Despite the odds suggesting otherwise, users were encouraged to chase the less likely outcome, sparking concerns about the platform's accuracy and predictive value.
Investors seem to be more interested in the revenue generated by these platforms than their supposed ability to provide clarity or predictions. Kalshi has recently raised $1 billion in new financing at an $11 billion valuation, with investors eager to capitalize on the "prediction market" trend – even if it means exploiting users who bet without fully understanding the odds.
Critics argue that Mansour's vision is more about profiting from disagreements than resolving differences of opinion. As the platform continues to expand its offerings and attract new investors, one thing becomes clear: those with money are betting on people being suckers for the "prediction market" craze – and it's likely they'll come out on top.
I don't think this is a great idea at all... Like, seriously. We're already having so many weird discussions online about who's right or wrong without creating some platform that just encourages people to bet on their opinions being wrong. And what happens when people get caught up in the excitement of winning or losing and start making more ridiculous bets? 
It's not like this is going to resolve anything or bring us closer to having a deeper understanding of the world. It's just going to make more money for investors who are already raking it in off of user engagement... 
. The prediction market thing sounds kinda cool, but yeah, it's all about the money 
. Those investors are just trying to get in on the ground floor of something shiny and new before everyone else does 
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. And Mansour's whole "surfacing truth to people" thing is just a nice way of saying he wants to profit off people's emotional investment in their opinions 
Kalshi's CEO wants to monetize disagreements, but I'm pretty sure that's just code for "we're all going to end up getting taken for a ride". And honestly, with investors throwing $1 billion at this idea, it's like they're all secretly hoping someone will come along and bet on the most absurd outcome. Like, who needs actual truth or accuracy when you can have a good time trying to guess what other people are thinking? 
I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but more like... let's just add "get taken for a ride" to the list of things we're all doing in life, right? 
I think Kalshi is trying to create this whole thing around prediction markets but like, isn't that just a way to make money off people who don't really understand how odds work? 
. Maybe we should just give the platform a chance and see how it plays out? 
- Kalshi CEO is basically profiting off people's opinions without giving them any real value. It's like, we get it, people love to argue, but do we really want to put our money where our mouth is? 
, can you believe this?! Kalshi is literally just going to profit off of everyone's disagreements 
. I mean, who thought it was a good idea to create a platform where people can bet on both sides of an argument? It's like they're encouraging people to be oblivious to the odds 
. Prediction markets might seem interesting, but when it comes down to it, they're just a way for companies like Kalshi to take advantage of us 
how Kalshi is trying to make money off people's disagreements 
Anyone else think that prediction markets are more about hype than actually predicting anything 