Microsoft's plan to revolutionize PCs with its Copilot+ AI initiative has fizzled out, leaving behind only modest achievements.
It was clear from the start that Microsoft's vision for a premium PC experience relying on artificial intelligence was based on flawed assumptions. Most consumers aren't as enthusiastic about AI features as tech companies are willing to convince them to be. Moreover, these features haven't been particularly compelling. The Recall feature, which saves screenshots of your PC and creates a database of everything you've done, has been plagued by privacy concerns from the get-go. As for its ability to remember files and websites you've opened, it hasn't really proven useful.
Given the current economic climate, consumers weren't willing to shell out extra cash for Copilot+ systems either. In fact, according to Mercury Research, Copilot+ accounted for less than 10% of systems shipped in the third quarter of 2024. The IDC found that Copilot+ systems made up just 2.3% of Windows machines sold in the first quarter of 2025 and a mere 1.9% of all PC sales.
In an effort to shift focus, Microsoft is now aiming to make every Windows 11 computer an AI-powered machine, with cloud-based voice commands and Copilot Vision features that don't require powerful neural processing units (NPUs). The company had previously touted NPUs as the key to unlocking more useful AI features like Recall and Windows Studio webcam effects. However, only one of its new AI capabilities actually requires an NPU.
Despite a lackluster start, Microsoft's effort has led to some positive changes. For instance, the Copilot+ program spurred Microsoft to revamp Windows for mobile Arm processors, which has improved performance on devices like the Surface Pro and smaller models.
However, it seems that consumers just aren't that excited about AI-powered PCs yet. The steady progression of hardware will still lead to AI PCs dominating in the next five years, with Omdia predicting that 55% of computers shipped in 2026 will be AI-powered. By 2029, this number is expected to reach 75%, giving Windows 80% of the market share.
Omdia research analyst Kieren Jessop noted that the steep adoption curve for AI PCs is driven more by product roadmaps than consumer demand. Businesses and consumers are more likely to purchase a device with an NPU by chance, rather than specifically for its AI capabilities. While Microsoft was right in acknowledging that AI PCs are the future, it appears that onboard NPUs are becoming less relevant due to cloud-based power.
The only way AI features will become truly useful is when they can be processed locally without relying on the cloud, such as transcribing sensitive audio instead of sending it remotely. Until then, these workloads remain relatively niche and not enough to make Copilot+ a success by any measure.
It was clear from the start that Microsoft's vision for a premium PC experience relying on artificial intelligence was based on flawed assumptions. Most consumers aren't as enthusiastic about AI features as tech companies are willing to convince them to be. Moreover, these features haven't been particularly compelling. The Recall feature, which saves screenshots of your PC and creates a database of everything you've done, has been plagued by privacy concerns from the get-go. As for its ability to remember files and websites you've opened, it hasn't really proven useful.
Given the current economic climate, consumers weren't willing to shell out extra cash for Copilot+ systems either. In fact, according to Mercury Research, Copilot+ accounted for less than 10% of systems shipped in the third quarter of 2024. The IDC found that Copilot+ systems made up just 2.3% of Windows machines sold in the first quarter of 2025 and a mere 1.9% of all PC sales.
In an effort to shift focus, Microsoft is now aiming to make every Windows 11 computer an AI-powered machine, with cloud-based voice commands and Copilot Vision features that don't require powerful neural processing units (NPUs). The company had previously touted NPUs as the key to unlocking more useful AI features like Recall and Windows Studio webcam effects. However, only one of its new AI capabilities actually requires an NPU.
Despite a lackluster start, Microsoft's effort has led to some positive changes. For instance, the Copilot+ program spurred Microsoft to revamp Windows for mobile Arm processors, which has improved performance on devices like the Surface Pro and smaller models.
However, it seems that consumers just aren't that excited about AI-powered PCs yet. The steady progression of hardware will still lead to AI PCs dominating in the next five years, with Omdia predicting that 55% of computers shipped in 2026 will be AI-powered. By 2029, this number is expected to reach 75%, giving Windows 80% of the market share.
Omdia research analyst Kieren Jessop noted that the steep adoption curve for AI PCs is driven more by product roadmaps than consumer demand. Businesses and consumers are more likely to purchase a device with an NPU by chance, rather than specifically for its AI capabilities. While Microsoft was right in acknowledging that AI PCs are the future, it appears that onboard NPUs are becoming less relevant due to cloud-based power.
The only way AI features will become truly useful is when they can be processed locally without relying on the cloud, such as transcribing sensitive audio instead of sending it remotely. Until then, these workloads remain relatively niche and not enough to make Copilot+ a success by any measure.