Predicting Elon Musk's predictions has become a lucrative game for some bettors on the prediction market platform Polymarket.
A "whale" investor, sitting just outside the top 50 in all-time profits, has made a significant chunk of his winnings by betting against Musk and Tesla. The investor has placed 12 bets against them, with over $36,000 on the line. His most recent bet paid off when he won a 10% return on a $10,000 wager that Musk wouldn't start a new American political party despite threatening to do so.
While a 10% return may not seem like a lot, it's still attractive compared to other investment options. And, unlike traditional savings accounts, which offer much lower interest rates, Polymarket's returns are riskier but potentially more lucrative.
Musk is notorious for making outlandish claims and promises, often on earnings calls or in public statements. However, few people are willing to put their money where their mouth is. For example, despite Musk's claim that he might buy Irish budget airline Ryanair, the likelihood of him following through on this threat is currently at just 14% on Polymarket.
Bettors can make easy money by betting against Musk's predictions, particularly when it comes to his company's artificial general intelligence ambitions. It's unlikely that xAI will achieve AGI by the end of 2026, and Tesla's plans for autonomous driving and robotics are also subject to significant doubt.
However, there are risks involved with Polymarket betting, including unregulated markets and market manipulation. Musk himself has been known to try to influence the market through his public statements, and last year's launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service was a case in point. The service launched in June, but only for a select group, and Musk's backers lost out on their bets.
As a result, bettors are being cautious when betting against Musk's predictions. For those who want to take advantage of the lucrative market, it's essential to understand the risks involved and do your research before placing any wagers.
A "whale" investor, sitting just outside the top 50 in all-time profits, has made a significant chunk of his winnings by betting against Musk and Tesla. The investor has placed 12 bets against them, with over $36,000 on the line. His most recent bet paid off when he won a 10% return on a $10,000 wager that Musk wouldn't start a new American political party despite threatening to do so.
While a 10% return may not seem like a lot, it's still attractive compared to other investment options. And, unlike traditional savings accounts, which offer much lower interest rates, Polymarket's returns are riskier but potentially more lucrative.
Musk is notorious for making outlandish claims and promises, often on earnings calls or in public statements. However, few people are willing to put their money where their mouth is. For example, despite Musk's claim that he might buy Irish budget airline Ryanair, the likelihood of him following through on this threat is currently at just 14% on Polymarket.
Bettors can make easy money by betting against Musk's predictions, particularly when it comes to his company's artificial general intelligence ambitions. It's unlikely that xAI will achieve AGI by the end of 2026, and Tesla's plans for autonomous driving and robotics are also subject to significant doubt.
However, there are risks involved with Polymarket betting, including unregulated markets and market manipulation. Musk himself has been known to try to influence the market through his public statements, and last year's launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service was a case in point. The service launched in June, but only for a select group, and Musk's backers lost out on their bets.
As a result, bettors are being cautious when betting against Musk's predictions. For those who want to take advantage of the lucrative market, it's essential to understand the risks involved and do your research before placing any wagers.
. Like, I know Elon Musk is super unpredictable, but it's so entertaining to try and guess what he'll do next! 
And yeah, betting against him can be a good strategy, especially when it comes to his crazy AI plans 
. I mean, 14% on Polymarket says he'll buy Ryanair? Lmao 
that's low.
. Those unregulated markets and market manipulation vibes can be super sketchy. And don't even get me started on Elon trying to game the system through his tweets 
. It's like, you gotta stay vigilant and do your research before putting your money on the line.
. But for those who are new to this game, it's def worth doing some homework before jumping in. The rewards can be huge, but so can the losses 
.
! It's crazy how much money people are making (or losing) on Polymarket. I mean, who wouldn't want to bet against him starting a new American political party? 
. Anyway, I'm curious to see what Musk does next! Will he live up to his promises or just blow us all away again? 
I'm so done with Elon Musk's latest antics 
Like, what's next? 
And now people are betting against him on Polymarket, making easy money off his questionable predictions 
... it's like they're going to revolutionize the industry or something 
. Newsflash: they won't 
.
.
and its not just agi, i think tesla's autonomous driving plans r also gonna be a letdown 
dont get me wrong, musk is all about hype but betting against him can be a winner if u know what ur doin 
. I mean, come on, 10% return might seem okay but it's still a risk - what if he follows through? 
.
. The thing is, we've seen him change his mind (or exaggerate) before, like when he said Tesla would hit $1 trillion in revenue and it ended up being like "oh wait" 
.
. We need to be careful here, folks, because when Musk's involved, the rules of the game can change faster than a tweet 
. for me, I think the risks involved with Polymarket betting are pretty high, especially with unregulated markets and market manipulation being a thing 
. what do u think? should we take the bet or play it safe?