Russia's economic collapse could be the downfall of President Vladimir Putin, as the war with Ukraine continues to drain the nation's resources and fuel its leader's ego.
The opportunity to end the conflict was let slip by Moscow last week when US President Donald Trump extended an olive branch to Putin. The proposed "peace" deal, which would have handed over large chunks of Ukrainian land to Russia, compromised Kyiv's independence, and weakened its defenses against future attacks. In return, Russia would have received a reprieve from economic sanctions and the chance to revive its flagging economy.
But Putin spurned the offer, choosing instead to continue the war that has already inflicted devastating losses on his country. The consequences are dire: Russia's oil and gas income, which accounts for up to 50% of state revenue, is down 27% year-on-year, and recession looms. Inflation is soaring at 8%, interest rates have reached 16%, and the budget deficit is growing.
The situation is far from stable. Ukraine has identified a weak spot in Russia's economy: its refineries, pipelines, and "shadow fleet" of oil tankers carrying illicit exports. Naval drone strikes have set ablaze a third tanker in the Black Sea, further straining Russia's energy infrastructure. The country's two main energy giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, are reeling as Asian buyers rush to avoid secondary US sanctions.
Putin's economic woes are matched by plummeting geopolitical influence. His war has left Moscow bogged down in Ukraine, unable to project power beyond its borders. Syria, once a prized Middle Eastern ally, has turned to the west and Iran is under attack from the US and Israel. Ties with China have been upended, and Russia is now relegated to the role of dependent junior partner.
The narrative that "Russia is winning" is delusional. Putin's claims of territorial gains are marginal, and his failure to subjugate Ukraine has left over 280,000 Russians killed or injured in the first eight months of the conflict. The cost of war on Russia's economy is staggering, with consumer taxes soaring and vodka prices increasing by 5%.
The Russian people are increasingly losing patience with their leader. The blood money schemes he uses to bribe infantry volunteers from poor rural areas, paying them as much as £1,500 per month to fight in the war, reflect a deep indifference to Russia's entrenched problems of poverty and demographic collapse.
As the fighting continues, a "vast social crisis" could ensue, according to independent journalist Alexey Kovalev. The Kremlin fears this is why it has crushed public and online dissent. For Putin, this could be his undoing.
A new report by experts at the London School of Economics (LSE) found that while the war has "dramatically improved" the incomes of 20% of Russians, it has hugely divided the country. For the bulk of Russians, real incomes have fallen by 16-42%.
The latest US negotiating fiasco has exposed Trump's "idiotically lopsided Ukraine strategy". By appeasing Russia from the start, he has undermined Ukraine and emboldened Putin. The US must now step in with more weapons for Ukraine, reparation loans using seized Russian assets, fully enforced energy sanctions, tougher kinetic responses to sabotage and cyber-attacks, and a united determination to help end Putin's war.
Putin's time is running out. He may have the country of Russia itself, but he cannot defeat Ukraine or Europe. He will be brought down by his own actions, just as the tsars and totalitarians of old were.
The opportunity to end the conflict was let slip by Moscow last week when US President Donald Trump extended an olive branch to Putin. The proposed "peace" deal, which would have handed over large chunks of Ukrainian land to Russia, compromised Kyiv's independence, and weakened its defenses against future attacks. In return, Russia would have received a reprieve from economic sanctions and the chance to revive its flagging economy.
But Putin spurned the offer, choosing instead to continue the war that has already inflicted devastating losses on his country. The consequences are dire: Russia's oil and gas income, which accounts for up to 50% of state revenue, is down 27% year-on-year, and recession looms. Inflation is soaring at 8%, interest rates have reached 16%, and the budget deficit is growing.
The situation is far from stable. Ukraine has identified a weak spot in Russia's economy: its refineries, pipelines, and "shadow fleet" of oil tankers carrying illicit exports. Naval drone strikes have set ablaze a third tanker in the Black Sea, further straining Russia's energy infrastructure. The country's two main energy giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, are reeling as Asian buyers rush to avoid secondary US sanctions.
Putin's economic woes are matched by plummeting geopolitical influence. His war has left Moscow bogged down in Ukraine, unable to project power beyond its borders. Syria, once a prized Middle Eastern ally, has turned to the west and Iran is under attack from the US and Israel. Ties with China have been upended, and Russia is now relegated to the role of dependent junior partner.
The narrative that "Russia is winning" is delusional. Putin's claims of territorial gains are marginal, and his failure to subjugate Ukraine has left over 280,000 Russians killed or injured in the first eight months of the conflict. The cost of war on Russia's economy is staggering, with consumer taxes soaring and vodka prices increasing by 5%.
The Russian people are increasingly losing patience with their leader. The blood money schemes he uses to bribe infantry volunteers from poor rural areas, paying them as much as £1,500 per month to fight in the war, reflect a deep indifference to Russia's entrenched problems of poverty and demographic collapse.
As the fighting continues, a "vast social crisis" could ensue, according to independent journalist Alexey Kovalev. The Kremlin fears this is why it has crushed public and online dissent. For Putin, this could be his undoing.
A new report by experts at the London School of Economics (LSE) found that while the war has "dramatically improved" the incomes of 20% of Russians, it has hugely divided the country. For the bulk of Russians, real incomes have fallen by 16-42%.
The latest US negotiating fiasco has exposed Trump's "idiotically lopsided Ukraine strategy". By appeasing Russia from the start, he has undermined Ukraine and emboldened Putin. The US must now step in with more weapons for Ukraine, reparation loans using seized Russian assets, fully enforced energy sanctions, tougher kinetic responses to sabotage and cyber-attacks, and a united determination to help end Putin's war.
Putin's time is running out. He may have the country of Russia itself, but he cannot defeat Ukraine or Europe. He will be brought down by his own actions, just as the tsars and totalitarians of old were.
... like how can one man hold an entire country hostage? The economy is literally tanking and people are suffering 
. It's not just about Ukraine, it's about Russia as a whole. I feel for the Russian people who are struggling to make ends meet 
. We need to support them and advocate for peace ASAP 
. The West needs to step up its game and put pressure on Putin to end this war before it's too late 
... the world can't keep watching as Russia collapses 
.
... Trump actually tried to help Putin, but Russia just isn't having it 
. Meanwhile, the rest of us are stuck dealing with the consequences, watching our energy prices skyrocket and recession loom large 
. And yeah, Putin's ego is definitely a thing... who needs that kind of instability in their economy? 
The poor guy really is struggling to keep his head above water 
. The US needs to step in and help Ukraine before it's too late 
. We can't let Putin win and continue his destructive war 
.
, I mean who needs a coherent strategy when you can just wave your hand and make everyone go along with it? Meanwhile, Putin is over here literally bleeding Russia dry 
. Can someone please tell me what "peace" deal looks like when it's got an escape clause that lets Russia keep its ill-gotten gains? 
. With Putin's war machine sucking up all the resources, poverty and demographic issues are just going to get worse before they get better... or not. The only ones getting richer are the oligarchs and war profiteers 
.
, war with Ukraine has been going on for ages now and russia's economy is literally tanking 
I'm getting worried about Putin, mate... he's digging himself into a deep hole with this war in Ukraine 
. Russia's economy is tanking, inflation is soaring, and their energy sector is on fire 
. The guy's ego is driving him crazy, but it's the Russian people who'll be paying the price 
.
. And when they do, Putin's gonna be the first one to take the fall 
. Mark my words, mate... he's got no way out of this one! 
. And don't even get me started on the "blood money" schemes... bribery, what a joke! Putin needs to wake up and address Russia's real problems: poverty and demographic collapse 
.
Come on, America! We can't let Putin win this without putting in the real effort 
. And 8% inflation? Forget about it, that's like living on ramen noodles forever 
. I remember back in '99 when Clinton was president and we had a brief period of peace with Russia... those were the days, bro 
.
. And this war in Ukraine? It's like he's trying to recreate the Soviet Union or something 
. Newsflash, Vlad: it ain't gonna work 
. It's a harsh lesson in economics but someone's gotta learn it 
.
. And those energy sanctions are not helping either 
. The people are suffering, and the war has caused so much harm 
. I'm all for Ukraine winning this war, and I think the US should step in with more support 
. Putin's time is indeed running out 
Sending more support to Ukraine and imposing tougher sanctions on Russia is the way forward. We can't let Putin get away with this 
. His war with Ukraine has left him bogged down, unable to project power beyond his borders. The narrative that "Russia is winning" is simply delusional 
. By listening to diverse perspectives and being open to compromise, we can avoid the pitfalls of ego-driven decision-making and build a more just and equitable society for everyone 
.
The cost of this war will be felt by ordinary Russians who are already struggling with poverty and demographic issues...