The Guardian view on OBR v the Treasury: ministers have embraced the theatre of errors | Editorial

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UK Government's Fiscal Fiasco: Theatre of Errors and Self-Interest

The media frenzy surrounding the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast has been laughable, with headlines screaming about "holes" and "sleaze probes". The public finances can't be predicted with pinpoint accuracy, but it seems that many are treating the OBR as an oracle. This is a case of bad theatre.

The OBR itself admits to frequent errors in its medium-term projections, often underestimating inflation and productivity. Its 2019 forecast undershot actual GDP growth by £200bn. Treating a projected current budget balance of £20bn in 2029-30 as a hard fact is deeply unserious.

The government colludes in this fiction, with some politicians hiding behind vague language. Labour's Rachel Reeves wasn't deceitful, but her silence on the OBR's mistakes was awkward. Similarly, Sir Keir Starmer suggested that the OBR had been overzealous, implying that civil servants had it in for the incoming government.

However, the real issue is not the OBR itself, but the fiscal rule that requires a current budget surplus in 2029-30. This target exists to soothe bond markets, which prefer more austerity to reduce gilt issuance and boost bond prices. The government's instability lies between the demands of its MPs and the interests of bond traders.

The solution lies in addressing the underlying drivers of the deficit. Reducing interest bills, taxing banks' windfall gains, "tiering" reserve remuneration, and ending the Treasury's indemnity of the Bank's quantitative easing losses could improve the fiscal position without harming social fabric. However, these measures require a political imagination that the current government has not yet demonstrated.

Only a new Labour leader with the courage to defy bond market fear may be able to dispel this paralysis and rebuild Britain's finances on more sustainable grounds.
 
I'm like "meh" about all this budget drama 🤷‍♂️ - I mean, who can predict the future? 🤑 The OBR might make some mistakes (who doesn't?! 😅), but we're still talking £200bn GDP growth, that's not so bad! 💸 As for the fiscal rule, let's be real, it's just a way to keep bond markets calm ⏰. We should focus on reducing interest bills and taxing banks' windfall gains 📈 - those are measures I can get behind! 👍 The only issue is finding someone with "the courage" to take on the status quo 💪... sounds like we need a new Labour leader who's down to earth, not just some puppet of bond traders 🤑
 
🤑📉 honestly tho, I'm low-key relieved it's just another fiscal fiasco 🤯 in the UK 🇬🇧. The media's gone full-on sensationalist 😂, treating the OBR like some kind of magical prophecy 🌟. Newsflash: no one can predict the future with absolute certainty 💸.

The problem is way more complex than just the OBR itself - it's about those fiscal rules that are meant to calm bond markets and keep interest rates low 📊. It's all very interesting, but at the end of the day, it's just politicians playing a game of catch-up 🔙.

I do think reducing interest bills and taxing banks' windfall gains could make a difference 💸, but we need someone with some real vision to tackle this 💡. Until then, it's just more of the same old theatre 🎭.
 
🤔 this whole thing just seems like a classic example of how politicians prioritize short-term gains over long-term consequences... I mean, who needs fiscal responsibility when you can impress the bond traders with your austerity measures? 📈 and it's crazy that we're so caught up in this narrative of 'holes' and 'sleaze probes' - it's like we've forgotten that the real issue is the underlying drivers of the deficit... how do we balance the interests of our MPs, bond traders, and the general public? 🤷‍♂️ does anyone even know what the 'fiscal rule' is anymore? 📊
 
I'm skeptical about the whole thing... 🤔 The OBR's forecast isn't some sort of magic crystal ball, it's just an estimate based on data. You can't predict the economy with 100% accuracy and still expect people to go ballistic when things don't quite match up. I think the media is just playing the sensationalism game here. 📰 It's also a bit convenient that everyone's suddenly talking about 'holes' in the OBR forecast, but nobody wants to address the real issue - the fiscal rule itself! 💸 What if we were to tackle the underlying drivers of the deficit instead? Reducing interest bills, taxing banks' windfall gains... these are just basic common sense measures. Maybe we need a new Labour leader who's not afraid to take on the bond market and show us that there's more to fiscal responsibility than just pleasing investors! 💪
 
[Image of a person wearing a straightjacket with a thinking cap on]

OBR = Oracle of Budget Rubbish

[Frank Underwood GIF, laughing maniacally]

Politicians hiding behind vague language = "I'm not lying, I'm just... um, using words" 🤦‍♂️

[Boris Johnson as a magician trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat, but the rabbit is a budget deficit]

[Fiscal rule = "let's make everyone save money except for our friends in banking"]

[Image of a puzzle piece with a big X marked through it]

Only when we add more pieces to the financial puzzle (like taxing banks' windfall gains) can we build a stronger, more sustainable future 🤝
 
The OBR forecast is like a magic show – everyone's watching, but nobody really knows what's going on 🤹‍♂️📊 I mean, £20bn in 2029-30 as a "hard fact"? Come on! It's just a projection, and we all know how those work out... or don't 😂. And the fiscal rule? That's just a way to keep bond traders happy 🤵‍♂️. I'm not saying it's all bad, but can we please focus on addressing the real issues instead of playing pretend with numbers? 💸📊
 
I'm not convinced by all this fuss about the OBR forecast 🤔. I mean, it's just one projection, right? And what's with all these headlines screaming "holes" and "sleaze probes"? It's like everyone's trying to be a financial detective 🕵️‍♀️, but can't actually get their facts straight.

And let's not forget that the OBR itself says it makes mistakes, so why are we treating its predictions as gospel? 🤷‍♂️ I'm all for transparency and accountability, but come on, people! It's just numbers, not rocket science 🚀.

I do think there's a bigger issue here, though - the fiscal rule that's supposed to ensure a budget surplus by 2029-30. Sounds like just an excuse for austerity to me 🤑. What if we're actually addressing the root causes of our deficit, like interest bills and bank windfall gains? That would be more impressive than just touting some pie-in-the-sky target 🎉.

We need a government that's willing to think outside the box (or in this case, the fiscal rule 📈) and come up with real solutions. Until then, I'll remain skeptical 😒.
 
🤦‍♂️ I mean, come on! The media is making such a big deal out of nothing. Just 'cause there are some errors in the OBR's projections doesn't mean we should be freaking out 🙄. I get it, predicting public finances is tricky, but you can't treat it like it's set in stone 💸. And don't even get me started on politicians who are trying to hide behind vague language 🤥. It's just bad theatre 😂.

And what's with the fiscal rule? It's a pretty arbitrary target that was created to make bond markets happy 📈. But, honestly, who cares about saving a few quid when you could be addressing some real issues like reducing interest bills or taxing banks' windfall gains 💸? It seems like the government is more worried about pleasing bond traders than doing what's right for the country 🙅‍♂️.

I'm not saying there's no solution, but we need a leader with some serious guts to tackle this stuff 🤯. Maybe someone who isn't afraid to defy the bond market and do what's best for Britain 🇬🇧.
 
Ugh, can't believe they're making a fuss over a forecast 🙄📊. I mean, come on, £20bn isn't exactly a fortune 💸. It's all just a big show for the bond traders 🤣. And don't even get me started on the fiscal rule 📝 - it's like they're trying to appease everyone except the actual voters 👀. Labour's got its priorities straight by calling out the OBR's errors 🙌, but yeah, Rachel Reeves was a bit...awkward 💔. Guess we'll just have to wait and see if a new Labour leader can actually make some changes 🤞🏼
 
I'm not buying into all this hype about the UK budget forecast 🤑📊. I mean, come on, £200bn underestimation in 2019? That's a big hole! But let's be real, the OBR isn't perfect and it makes mistakes. I think the real issue here is the fiscal rule that's supposed to balance the books by 2029-30. It's like trying to predict the weather – it's just not that easy 🌫️.

And what about all these politicians talking about "holes" and "sleaze probes"? Give me a break! 🙄 The government's got some explaining to do, but let's focus on the real solutions rather than just shouting about problems. I think reducing interest bills and taxing bank windfall gains could make a big difference 💸.

But what really gets my goat is when politicians are all like "oh, the OBR is biased" or "the bond market is too influential". Get over it! 🙃 We need leaders who can have tough conversations about our finances and come up with real plans to tackle our deficit. So, yeah, a new Labour leader with some guts would be great 💪 – someone who's not afraid to take on the bond traders and get Britain's finances back on track 👍
 
omg u guys r so extra about the uk gov fiasco lol but have u seen my latest credit card bill?? 🤦‍♀️ it's like, £2000 just for online purchases and i'm still trying to figure out how they calculate all this stuff 💸 anyway back 2 the topic at hand i think the real issue is that ppl r more worried about their investments than actual people's lives 💔 what if we focused on solving the root causes of poverty rather than just worrying about bond markets? 🤷‍♀️ btw did u hear i got a new job?? 🎉
 
I'm not buying it 🙄. The OBR can't be perfect, but it's not supposed to be 100% accurate either. It's a forecast, not a prophecy. We should stop treating these projections like they're set in stone and start thinking about the real issues - like how we can reduce our deficit without breaking the economy 🤔.

I'm also not convinced that Labour's solution is all sunshine and rainbows. They want to "tier" reserve remuneration, but what does that even mean? How would it work? And taxing banks' windfall gains seems like a recipe for disaster - we don't need more regulations 🚫.

We need a fresh start, not just a new leader who can talk the talk 💬. We need concrete plans and a willingness to take risks. Anything less is just more of the same old theatre of errors 😴.
 
🙄 Can't believe the media is making such a big deal about a budget forecast that's already proven to be way off in the past... like, come on! The real issue here is the fiscal rule itself, which is just a fancy way of saying we're beholden to bond traders who care more about saving face for their investment portfolios 🤑 than about doing what's actually good for the country. And now we need a whole new Labour leader to be brave enough to break free from that? 😩 Come on, politicians! Can't you see that just keeping things "austerity" all the time is not gonna cut it? We need some actual vision here 💡
 
I feel like the media is just hyping up the OBR forecast thingy... its always about the drama 🤦‍♂️📰 and never really looking at the real issues. I mean, come on £200bn off GDP growth in 2019? that's crazy talk! 🤯

I'm with Rachel Reeves on this one, not hiding from the truth is good, but you can't just sit there either... some people need to speak up and be honest about it 😒. And what's with Sir Keir Starmer being vague? transparency is key here!

I don't think the fiscal rule is even that bad, its just a way for bond markets to keep things stable 📈👍. But yeah, we do need to look at why our deficit is so high in the first place... tax banks' windfall gains and stuff like that needs to change 💸.

A new Labour leader might be exactly what we need here 🤞... someone with a plan who isn't afraid of taking risks and looking at the bigger picture 🌆.
 
I mean come on 🤦‍♂️... This fiscal fiasco is just theatre, folks! The OBR's errors are one thing, but the government colluding with all this drama? Give me a break 😒. It's like they're playing a game of chicken with bond markets and their MPs are just happy to get into bed with the big financial players 🤝.

The real issue here is that we need bold solutions to our debt problems, not more austerity 🙄. We should be taxing banks' windfall gains and reducing interest bills like it's 1999 💸... Not this half-baked tiering nonsense 🤑. A new Labour leader with some backbone would finally sort us out 👊. Until then, we're stuck in this fiscal limbo 😴.
 
I'm reading all this about the UK budget and I gotta say, it seems like everyone's losing their minds 🤯. The OBR forecast is just a prediction, not set in stone 💸. And yeah, the government's all over the place trying to spin this. It's like they're trying to be economists or something 😂.

But seriously, the fiscal rule is what's causing all the problems. I get why they want to keep bond markets happy, but at what cost? 🤔. They need to think about the real issues here, not just what will boost their stock market ratings 💪. Some actual policy changes would be a good start – like taxing banks more or something 🤑.

It's sad that it takes a new leader with some guts to make any progress on this stuff 🙏. I hope whoever takes over next can shake things up and sort out Britain's finances for real 🔥.
 
omg did you see that episode of "the great british baking show" last week? 🍰👀 paul hollywood was being so harsh on those contestants, but i think it's kinda funny when he gets all worked up over a simple cake. anyway, back to the budget thingy... what's with all this fuss about deficits and surplus? can't we just chill out and spend our money like normal people? 🤷‍♂️
 
🤔 "The biggest adventure you can take is to live the life of your dreams." But for now, let's just hope our politicians have the guts to make some real changes 💪
 
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